July 2020: Our Thoughts on Markets and Investing

MODERNIST’S ASSET CLASS INVESTING PORTFOLIOS ARE STRATEGICALLY INVESTED WITH A FOCUS ON LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVES. PORTFOLIO ALLOCATIONS AND INVESTMENTS ARE NOT ADJUSTED IN RESPONSE TO MARKET NEWS OR ECONOMIC EVENTS; HOWEVER, OUR INVESTMENT COMMITTEE EVALUATES AND REPORTS ON MARKET AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS TO PROVIDE OUR INVESTORS WITH PERSPECTIVE AND TO PUT PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE IN PROPER CONTEXT.

“Patience is bitter, but its fruit is sweet” were words most famously spoken by the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle. The wisdom in this adage can be applied to so many aspects of life, including investing. The current low interest rate environment has many investors reaching for yield by moving into longer-term, lower-quality bonds. But the fruits of that decision might not be as sweet as expected. Those who exercise patience, however, can reap the rewards that short-term, high-quality bonds have to offer.

Reaching for yield through longer-term bonds historically has cost investors a disproportionate amount of risk-taking. We see this when looking at the tradeoff between risk and return when bond maturities increase. As we move from shorter-maturity to longer-maturity bonds, return increases slightly, but so does risk and at a much faster rate. For example, from 1964 through 2019, one-year U.S. Treasury notes earned a compound return of 5.5% per year compared to 7.3% per year for long-term U.S. government bonds. Contrast that with the 2.4% standard deviation (a common measure of investment risk) for one-year U.S. Treasury notes and the 11.4% standard deviation for long-term U.S. government bonds. For the longer-term bonds, the risk is almost double the return.

Another way that investors reach for yield in bond markets is by investing in bonds with lower credit quality. Like we discussed above, this also involves a risk-return tradeoff that we don’t feel is adequately compensated. Historically, returns for both investment-grade corporate bonds and high-yield corporate bonds have come at too great a risk, and therefore represent too costly a tradeoff, for the incremental return they provide. It is because of these poor risk-return tradeoffs that we use short-term, high-quality bonds as the cornerstone of your portfolio.

Investors who take their chances and seek higher yields this way give up the primary benefits of fixed income in any portfolio: diversification and stability. Both investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds historically have moved more in line with stocks than other types of bonds. This means that both kinds of corporate bonds tend to perform poorly when equity markets are also performing poorly, making them less effective as a portfolio diversifier. The first quarter of 2020, where we saw a significant pullback in equity markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic, offers a perfect example of this. The S&P 500 (-19.6%), investment-grade corporate bonds (-3.6%), and high-yield corporate bonds (-12.7%) all saw significant declines during that period. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury bonds went up by 8.2% and would have served as a much-needed stabilizer to any portfolio.

Evidence shows us that the cost of chasing yield in the current fixed-income markets comes at too high a price, not only in terms of risk but also in terms of reduced diversification benefits. None of this prevents us from looking elsewhere in the portfolio to address your needs. If liquidity and income generation are a top priority, we can generate income by selling other assets, such as stocks, which may be more beneficial from a tax standpoint than generating income from bonds.

We may have to tolerate the bitter taste of historically low interest rates, but that will also allow us to receive the honeyed benefits of diversification and stability along our investment horizon. If you have any questions about your investments, need to inform us of family or work-related changes, or want to discuss your financial planning needs, please reach out. We are here to help you reach your financial life goals!

Take good care,

Georgia + Team Modernist